Because Mexico intends to ban the import of genetically modified (GMO) crops, U.S. corn growers could lose a yearly market for 600 million bushels of corn starting next year. This potentially catastrophic situation is due to an “anti-science” Mexican presidential decree that seeks to ban GMO corn starting in 2024 while also phasing out the use of glyphosate in both home-grown and imported crops and food products.

Herbicide Tolerant Acres

This represents a huge export loss in exports as 90% of U.S. corn acres were planted with herbicide-tolerant hybrids in 2022.

According to a study conducted by the Virginia-based business management consultant World Perspectives, Inc., this prohibition on GMO corn would be devasting both in the states and around the world.

As reported in the Wall Street Journal, the study projects the U.S. corn industry will lose an average of $4.56 billion each year while the annual U.S. gross national product (GNP) would be trimmed by $3.5 billion per year, mainly due to the loss of jobs related to corn production and processing.

With Mexico’s GMO ban, U.S. corn purchases will likely be replaced with the importation of more affordable meat and poultry raised on GMO corn in other countries. This will seriously impact Mexico’s home-grown production of poultry and beef.

Mexico would also suffer greatly from such a ban. The country’s gross national product would shrink by nearly $8 billion per year. The ban would also extend beyond agriculture, with an expected annual loss of 57,000 jobs and a reduced labor income of $3 billion for the country.

Economic Reality

The math related to the Mexican import ban represents as much as $6.91 for every bushel of lost corn markets for U.S. growers. At the same time, non-GMO corn prices would increase by 48% in 2024, with an average 19% per bushel increase over the next 10 years.

Maybe it’s time for more no-tillers to take a look at the benefits of growing non-GMO corn. As shown below, 22% of no-tillers are already doing so with a portion of their corn acres.

Hopefully, the Mexican government will respect the benefits of both GMO crops and glyphosate. Otherwise, everyone on all sides of the border between our countries will likely end up being losers.