Forecasters from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — part of the National Weather Service — issued the 2025 U.S. Spring Outlook for temperature, precipitation, drought and flooding for the coming months.
Forecasters predict above-average temperatures for the East and Gulf Coast regions, while drought conditions continue in the Southwest.
Experts at NOAA’s National Water Center predict that widespread major flooding is not expected this spring across the CONUS, and significantly reduced flood risk exists over much of the U.S., given above-average temperatures, combined with well-below-average snowpack over the Northern Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley.
“The Spring Outlook provides critical information for our partners — including those in agriculture, shipping and recreation — allowing them to prepare for what’s ahead this spring and maximize their economic potential,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service.
Spring Outlook for drought, temperature and precipitation
Moderate-to-exceptional drought conditions currently exist across more than 40% of the continental U.S.
Drought conditions are likely to persist in the Southwest and parts of the Rocky Mountains, while drought improvement is forecast for the Great Lakes region. Drought development is likely across the central and southern Great Plains.
Much of the western U.S. is favored to receive below-average precipitation, with the greatest odds of below-average precipitation in the central and southern Rockies, including the Four Corners region. Precipitation is favored to be above-average in some areas of the Great Lakes and in northern and western Alaska.
Above-average temperatures are likely across much of the U.S., including locations that experienced colder-than-average temperatures and unusual snowfall during the winter.
For April through June, above-average temperatures are favored along the southern tier of the country and for the Eastern seaboard with the highest chances for central and south Florida, and an area stretching from the Texas and Louisiana coasts to southern Utah and eastern Nevada.
La Nina conditions emerged during the winter — with cooler-than-average conditions observed in the waters of the equatorial Pacific — but the event is weakening entering the spring months. There is a 75% probability that ENSO-neutral conditions — neither El Nino nor La Nina — will return in the February-April 2025 time frame.
“La Nina’s influence on the Spring Outlook is limited as it weakens entering the spring months,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Other factors such as soil conditions and shorter-term climate patterns are more evident and influential when a strong ENSO signal is not present.”
Spring flood risk
NOAA’s National Hydrologic Assessment, issued by NOAA’s National Water Center, evaluates a number of factors, including current conditions of snowpack, drought, soil saturation levels, frost depth, streamflow and precipitation.
This year’s assessment focuses on significant flood potential, defined as moderate and major flooding, and those locations with the potential for a higher degree of impact to life and property.
The East Coast and much of the western U.S. have had below-average precipitation during the winter months, resulting in a low threat of significant spring flooding. However, heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding.
"We do not anticipate widespread moderate or major flooding this year,” said Ed Clark, director of NOAA’s National Water Center.
NOAA’s Office of Water Prediction unveiled its Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM) services in 2023, which provide actionable information to emergency and water managers to prepare for and respond to flood impacts. FIM provides the extent of flooding in Geospatial Information System (GIS) format on an hourly basis, as well as a five-day flood inundation forecast.
These flood inundation mapping services are available now for 30% of the U.S. with expansions planned for release in the coming months. Services are accessible from the OWP’s National Water Prediction Service (NWPS), launched last spring. The NWPS website centralizes water-related products and services by combining local and regional forecast information with new national level capabilities.
Finally, spring is typically the busiest time of year for tornadoes, so this also is a good time to read up on tornado safety and prepare for the season ahead.
